IndustryPokerNews · 4h ago
Why 83% × 44% = 44% in Kalshi's Midterm Markets
July 29, 2026
The brief
Kalshi’s midterm markets offer a useful lesson in correlation, and in why an apparent pricing inconsistency is not automatically an arbitrage opportunity. On July 24, Kalshi traders gave Democrats an 83% chance of winning the House and a 44%...
Original report
PokerNews
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